Multiple cardiovascular risk factor care in 55 low- and middle-income countries: A cross-sectional analysis of nationally-representative, individual-level data from 280,783 adults.

The prevalence of multiple age-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors is high among individuals living in low- and middle-income countries. We described receipt of healthcare services for and management of hypertension and diabetes among individuals living with these conditions using individual-level data from 55 nationally representative population-based surveys (2009-2019) with measured blood pressure (BP) and diabetes biomarker. We restricted our analysis to non-pregnant individuals aged 40-69 years and defined three mutually exclusive groups (i.e., hypertension only, diabetes only, and both hypertension-diabetes) to compare individuals living with concurrent hypertension and diabetes to individuals with each condition separately. We included 90,086 individuals who lived with hypertension only, 11,975 with diabetes only, and 16,228 with hypertension-diabetes. We estimated the percentage of individuals who were aware of their diagnosis, used pharmacological therapy, or achieved appropriate hypertension and diabetes management. A greater percentage of individuals with hypertension-diabetes were fully diagnosed (64.1% [95% CI: 61.8-66.4]) than those with hypertension only (47.4% [45.3-49.6]) or diabetes only (46.7% [44.1-49.2]). Among the hypertension-diabetes group, pharmacological treatment was higher for individual conditions (38.3% [95% CI: 34.8-41.8] using antihypertensive and 42.3% [95% CI: 39.4-45.2] using glucose-lowering medications) than for both conditions jointly (24.6% [95% CI: 22.1-27.2]).The percentage of individuals achieving appropriate management was highest in the hypertension group (17.6% [16.4-18.8]), followed by diabetes (13.3% [10.7-15.8]) and hypertension-diabetes (6.6% [5.4-7.8]) groups. Although health systems in LMICs are reaching a larger share of individuals living with both hypertension and diabetes than those living with just one of these conditions, only seven percent achieved both BP and blood glucose treatment targets. Implementation of cost-effective population-level interventions that shift clinical care paradigm from disease-specific to comprehensive CVD care are urgently needed for all three groups, especially for those with multiple CVD risk factors.

Hypertension care cascades and reducing inequities in cardiovascular disease in low- and middle-income countries.

Improving hypertension control in low- and middle-income countries has uncertain implications across socioeconomic groups. In this study, we simulated improvements in the hypertension care cascade and evaluated the distributional benefits across wealth quintiles in 44 low- and middle-income countries using individual-level data from nationally representative, cross-sectional surveys. We raised diagnosis (diagnosis scenario) and treatment (treatment scenario) levels for all wealth quintiles to match the best-performing country quintile and estimated the change in 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk of individuals initiated on treatment. We observed greater health benefits among bottom wealth quintiles in middle-income countries and in countries with larger baseline disparities in hypertension management. Lower-middle-income countries would see the greatest absolute benefits among the bottom quintiles under the treatment scenario (29.1 CVD cases averted per 1,000 people living with hypertension in the bottom quintile (Q1) versus 17.2 in the top quintile (Q5)), and the proportion of total CVD cases averted would be largest among the lowest quintiles in upper-middle-income countries under both diagnosis (32.0% of averted cases in Q1 versus 11.9% in Q5) and treatment (29.7% of averted cases in Q1 versus 14.0% in Q5) scenarios. Targeted improvements in hypertension diagnosis and treatment could substantially reduce socioeconomic-based inequalities in CVD burden in low- and middle-income countries.

Validation of prevalent diabetes risk scores based on non-invasively measured predictors in Ghanaian migrant and non-migrant populations - The RODAM study.

Background: Non-invasive diabetes risk models are a cost-effective tool in large-scale population screening to identify those who need confirmation tests, especially in resource-limited settings. Aims: This study aimed to evaluate the ability of six non-invasive risk models (Cambridge, FINDRISC, Kuwaiti, Omani, Rotterdam, and SUNSET model) to identify screen-detected diabetes (defined by HbA1c) among Ghanaian migrants and non-migrants. Study design: A multicentered cross-sectional study. Methods: This analysis included 4843 Ghanaian migrants and non-migrants from the Research on Obesity and Diabetes among African Migrants (RODAM) Study. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, and calibration plots. Results: All six models had acceptable discrimination (0.70 ≤ AUC <0.80) for screen-detected diabetes in the overall/combined population. Model performance did not significantly differ except for the Cambridge model, which outperformed Rotterdam and Omani models. Calibration was poor, with a consistent trend toward risk overestimation for screen-detected diabetes, but this was substantially attenuated by recalibration through adjustment of the original model intercept. Conclusion: Though acceptable discrimination was observed, the original models were poorly calibrated among populations of African ancestry. Recalibration of these models among populations of African ancestry is needed before use.

Macrovascular and renal microvascular complications in West Africans with intermediate hyperglycemia living in West Africa and Europe: The RODAM study.

Background: Metabolic conditions, including intermediate hyperglycemia (IH), affect migrants to a greater extent than the populations of origin. Evidence suggests that IH increases the risk of vascular complications, but it is unclear whether the differences in IH between the non-migrant and migrant populations translate to differences in vascular complications between the two populations. We compared the prevalence of macrovascular and renal microvascular complications among West Africans with IH living in West Africa and their migrant compatriots in Europe. Methods: Data from the multicenter Research on Obesity and Diabetes among African Migrants(RODAM) study were analyzed. Ghanaians with IH(524 non-migrant and 1439 migrants) were included. Logistic regression analyses were used to determine the associations between migrant status and macrovascular [coronary artery disease(CAD) and peripheral artery disease(PAD)] and renal microvascular[nephropathy] complications with adjustment for age, sex, socioeconomic status, smoking, systolic blood pressure, BMI, total cholesterol, HbA1c, C-reactive protein, and serum uric acid. Findings: The prevalence of microvascular/macrovascular complications was higher in non-migrants than in migrants(nephropathy 15.3vs.9.7%; PAD 3.1%vs.1.3%; and CAD 15.8% vs. 5.0%). The differences persisted in the fully adjusted model: nephropathy [odds ratio, 2.12; 95% CI(1.46-3.08); PAD, 4.44(1.87-10.51); CAD 2.35(1.64-3.37)]. Non-migrant females had higher odds of nephropathy[2.14(1.34-3.43)], PAD[7.47(2.38-23.40)] and CAD [2.10(1.34-3.27)] compared to migrant females. Non-migrant males had higher odds of nephropathy[2.54(1.30-4.97)] and CAD[2.85(1.48-5.50)], but not PAD[1.81(0.32-10.29)],than their migrant peers. Interpretation: Macrovascular and renal microvascular complications were more prevalent in non-migrants than in migrant West Africans with IH. Further studies are needed to identify factors that increase the risk to aid preventive/treatment strategies.

Diabetes risk and provision of diabetes prevention activities in 44 low-income and middle-income countries: a cross-sectional analysis of nationally representative, individual-level survey data.

BACKGROUND: The global burden of diabetes is rising rapidly, yet there is little evidence on individual-level diabetes prevention activities undertaken by health systems in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Here we describe the population at high risk of developing diabetes, estimate diabetes prevention activities, and explore sociodemographic variation in these activities across LMICs. METHODS: We performed a pooled, cross-sectional analysis of individual-level data from nationally representative, population-based surveys conducted in 44 LMICs between October, 2009, and May, 2019. Our sample included all participants older than 25 years who did not have diabetes and were not pregnant. We defined the population at high risk of diabetes on the basis of either the presence of impaired fasting glucose (or prediabetes in countries with a haemoglobin A1c available) or overweight or obesity, consistent with the WHO Package of Essential Noncommunicable Disease Guidelines for type 2 diabetes management. We estimated the proportion of survey participants that were at high risk of developing diabetes based on this definition. We also estimated the proportion of the population at high risk that reported each of four fundamental diabetes prevention activities: physical activity counselling, weight loss counselling, dietary counselling, and blood glucose screening, overall and stratified by World Bank income group. Finally, we used multivariable Poisson regression models to evaluate associations between sociodemographic characteristics and these activities. FINDINGS: The final pooled sample included 145 739 adults (86 269 [59·2%] of whom were female and 59 468 [40·4%] of whom were male) across 44 LMICs, of whom 59 308 (40·6% [95% CI 38·5-42·8]) were considered at high risk of diabetes (20·6% [19·8-21·5] in low-income countries, 38·0% [37·2-38·9] in lower-middle-income countries, and 57·5% [54·3-60·6] in upper-middle-income countries). Overall, the reach of diabetes prevention activities was low at 40·0% (38·6-41·4) for physical activity counselling, 37·1% (35·9-38·4) for weight loss counselling, 42·7% (41·6-43·7) for dietary counselling, and 37·1% (34·7-39·6) for blood glucose screening. Diabetes prevention varied widely by national-level wealth: 68·1% (64·6-71·4) of people at high risk of diabetes in low-income countries reported none of these activities, whereas 49·0% (47·4-50·7) at high risk in upper-middle-income countries reported at least three activities. Educational attainment was associated with diabetes prevention, with estimated increases in the predicted probability of receipt ranging between 6·5 (3·6-9·4) percentage points for dietary fruit and vegetable counselling and 21·3 (19·5-23·2) percentage points for blood glucose screening, among people with some secondary schooling compared with people with no formal education. INTERPRETATION: A large proportion of individuals across LMICs are at high risk of diabetes but less than half reported receiving fundamental prevention activities overall, with the lowest receipt of these activities among people in low-income countries and with no formal education. These findings offer foundational evidence to inform future global targets for diabetes prevention and to strengthen policies and programmes to prevent continued increases in diabetes worldwide. FUNDING: Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health McLennan Fund: Dean's Challenge Grant Program and the EU's Research and Innovation programme Horizon 2020.

Atherogenic index of plasma and its cardiovascular risk factor correlates among patients with type 2 diabetes in Uganda.

Background: Atherogenic Index of Plasma (AIP) is a reliable predictor of coronary artery disease. There is paucity of data on AIP and its correlates among patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Uganda. Objective: To assess the profile of AIP and its cardiovascular risk factor correlates among patients with T2D in Uganda. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study conducted in 8 health facilities with established T2D clinics in Central-Uganda. The study enrolled 500 patients aged 40 to 79 years. Data was collected on socio-demographic characteristics, lipid profile and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c). The AIP was derived using log (triglycerides/high-density cholesterol) and further categorised as low cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk if the AIP was <0.1, intermediate risk (0.1-0.24) and high risk (≥0.24). Cardiovascular risk factors were defined according to international guidelines.Stata version 14 was used to analyse data, Pearson correlation analyses were conducted. Statistical significance was set at p<0.05. Results: There were 389(77.4%) females with a mean age of 55.07±8. 979 years. Low-risk was found in 43.6%, intermediate risk in 20.2% and high risk in 36.2% of the participants. AIP significantly correlated with waist circumference (r=0.1095, p<0.0147), waist-hip ratio (r=0.1926, p<0.001), Casteri Risk Index I (r=0.506, r=<0.001), Casteri Risk Index II (r=0.246, p<0.001) and atherogenic coefficient (r=0.186, p<0.001). Insignificant correlation was observed between AIP and fasting blood sugar (r=0.017, p=0.7042), HBA1C (r=0.0108, p=0.8099) and diabetes duration (r=0.0445, p=0.32). Conclusions: AIP is significantly elevated and correlated with cardiovascular risk factors in patients with T2D. In clinical management, this may be a useful tool in risk stratifying patients with T2D.

Diagnostic testing for hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolaemia in low-income and middle-income countries: a cross-sectional study of data for 994 185 individuals from 57 nationally representative surveys.

BACKGROUND: Testing for the risk factors of cardiovascular disease, which include hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolaemia, is important for timely and effective risk management. Yet few studies have quantified and analysed testing of cardiovascular risk factors in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) with respect to sociodemographic inequalities. We aimed to address this knowledge gap. METHODS: In this cross-sectional analysis, we pooled individual-level data for non-pregnant adults aged 18 years or older from nationally representative surveys done between Jan 1, 2010, and Dec 31, 2019 in LMICs that included a question about whether respondents had ever had their blood pressure, glucose, or cholesterol measured. We analysed diagnostic testing performance by quantifying the overall proportion of people who had ever been tested for these cardiovascular risk factors and the proportion of individuals who met the diagnostic testing criteria in the WHO package of essential noncommunicable disease interventions for primary care (PEN) guidelines (ie, a BMI >30 kg/m2 or a BMI >25 kg/m2 among people aged 40 years or older). We disaggregated and compared diagnostic testing performance by sex, wealth quintile, and education using two-sided t tests and multivariable logistic regression models. FINDINGS: Our sample included data for 994 185 people from 57 surveys. 19·1% (95% CI 18·5-19·8) of the 943 259 people in the hypertension sample met the WHO PEN criteria for diagnostic testing, of whom 78·6% (77·8-79·2) were tested. 23·8% (23·4-24·3) of the 225 707 people in the diabetes sample met the WHO PEN criteria for diagnostic testing, of whom 44·9% (43·7-46·2) were tested. Finally, 27·4% (26·3-28·6) of the 250 573 people in the hypercholesterolaemia sample met the WHO PEN criteria for diagnostic testing, of whom 39·7% (37·1-2·4) were tested. Women were more likely than men to be tested for hypertension and diabetes, and people in higher wealth quintiles compared with those in the lowest wealth quintile were more likely to be tested for all three risk factors, as were people with at least secondary education compared with those with less than primary education. INTERPRETATION: Our study shows opportunities for health systems in LMICs to improve the targeting of diagnostic testing for cardiovascular risk factors and adherence to diagnostic testing guidelines. Risk-factor-based testing recommendations rather than sociodemographic characteristics should determine which individuals are tested. FUNDING: Harvard McLennan Family Fund, the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, and the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the US National Institutes of Health.

Aspirin for Secondary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in 51 Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Countries.

Importance: Aspirin is an effective and low-cost option for reducing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and improving mortality rates among individuals with established CVD. To guide efforts to mitigate the global CVD burden, there is a need to understand current levels of aspirin use for secondary prevention of CVD. Objective: To report and evaluate aspirin use for secondary prevention of CVD across low-, middle-, and high-income countries. Design, Setting, and Participants: Cross-sectional analysis using pooled, individual participant data from nationally representative health surveys conducted between 2013 and 2020 in 51 low-, middle-, and high-income countries. Included surveys contained data on self-reported history of CVD and aspirin use. The sample of participants included nonpregnant adults aged 40 to 69 years. Exposures: Countries' per capita income levels and world region; individuals' socioeconomic demographics. Main Outcomes and Measures: Self-reported use of aspirin for secondary prevention of CVD. Results: The overall pooled sample included 124 505 individuals. The median age was 52 (IQR, 45-59) years, and 50.5% (95% CI, 49.9%-51.1%) were women. A total of 10 589 individuals had a self-reported history of CVD (8.1% [95% CI, 7.6%-8.6%]). Among individuals with a history of CVD, aspirin use for secondary prevention in the overall pooled sample was 40.3% (95% CI, 37.6%-43.0%). By income group, estimates were 16.6% (95% CI, 12.4%-21.9%) in low-income countries, 24.5% (95% CI, 20.8%-28.6%) in lower-middle-income countries, 51.1% (95% CI, 48.2%-54.0%) in upper-middle-income countries, and 65.0% (95% CI, 59.1%-70.4%) in high-income countries. Conclusion and Relevance: Worldwide, aspirin is underused in secondary prevention, particularly in low-income countries. National health policies and health systems must develop, implement, and evaluate strategies to promote aspirin therapy.

Subgroups of adult-onset diabetes: a data-driven cluster analysis in a Ghanaian population.

Adult-onset diabetes mellitus (here: aDM) is not a uniform disease entity. In European populations, five diabetes subgroups have been identified by cluster analysis using simple clinical variables; these may elucidate diabetes aetiology and disease prognosis. We aimed at reproducing these subgroups among Ghanaians with aDM, and establishing their importance for diabetic complications in different health system contexts. We used data of 541 Ghanaians with aDM (age: 25-70 years; male sex: 44%) from the multi-center, cross-sectional Research on Obesity and Diabetes among African Migrants (RODAM) Study. Adult-onset DM was defined as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥ 7.0 mmol/L, documented use of glucose-lowering medication or self-reported diabetes, and age of onset ≥ 18 years. We derived subgroups by cluster analysis using (i) a previously published set of variables: age at diabetes onset, HbA1c, body mass index, HOMA-beta, HOMA-IR, positivity of glutamic acid decarboxylase autoantibodies (GAD65Ab), and (ii) Ghana-specific variables: age at onset, waist circumference, FPG, and fasting insulin. For each subgroup, we calculated the clinical, treatment-related and morphometric characteristics, and the proportions of objectively measured and self-reported diabetic complications. We reproduced the five subgroups: cluster 1 (obesity-related, 73%) and cluster 5 (insulin-resistant, 5%) with no dominant diabetic complication patterns; cluster 2 (age-related, 10%) characterized by the highest proportions of coronary artery disease (CAD, 18%) and stroke (13%); cluster 3 (autoimmune-related, 5%) showing the highest proportions of kidney dysfunction (40%) and peripheral artery disease (PAD, 14%); and cluster 4 (insulin-deficient, 7%) characterized by the highest proportion of retinopathy (14%). The second approach yielded four subgroups: obesity- and age-related (68%) characterized by the highest proportion of CAD (9%); body fat-related and insulin-resistant (18%) showing the highest proportions of PAD (6%) and stroke (5%); malnutrition-related (8%) exhibiting the lowest mean waist circumference and the highest proportion of retinopathy (20%); and ketosis-prone (6%) with the highest proportion of kidney dysfunction (30%) and urinary ketones (6%). With the same set of clinical variables, the previously published aDM subgroups can largely be reproduced by cluster analysis in this Ghanaian population. This method may generate in-depth understanding of the aetiology and prognosis of aDM, particularly when choosing variables that are clinically relevant for the target population.

Type 1 diabetes patient experiences and management practices during the COVID-19 pandemic in rural Uganda.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted various aspects of the lives of persons with chronic diseases, including type 1 diabetes (T1D). However, the diabetes care experiences and practices adopted by persons living with T1D after the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic in Uganda have not been well documented. Objectives: We investigated diabetes management practices and experiences of persons with T1D during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown in a rural district of southwestern Uganda. Methods: Using interactive sequential explanatory mixed methods, we conducted a cross-sectional study of persons with T1D aged 18-25 years, their caregivers and health workers. Quantitative data was exclusively collected from patients with T1D using Kobo Toolbox™ and analysed with SPSS™ version 26; qualitative interviews were used to elicit responses from purposively selected patients with T1D, plus caregivers and health workers that were analysed using a thematic framework approach. Results: The study enrolled 51 (24 males) patients with T1D; diabetes duration (mean ± SD) 6.6 ± 5 years. Access to insulin syringes significantly worsened in 19.6% of participants (p = 0.03). Insulin injection frequency (p = 0.01), blood glucose monitoring (p = 0.001) and meal frequency (p = 0.0001) significantly decreased. Qualitative interviews highlighted COVID-19 restriction measures had reduced household income, frequency of clinic visits, and access to food, diabetes support and social services. Conclusions: Experiences and practices were consistent with decisions to prioritise survival, even with known risks around metabolic control. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40200-023-01222-4.

Epigenome-wide association study of plasma lipids in West Africans: the RODAM study.

BACKGROUND: DNA-methylation has been associated with plasma lipid concentration in populations of diverse ethnic backgrounds, but epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) in West-Africans are lacking. The aim of this study was to identify DNA-methylation loci associated with plasma lipids in Ghanaians. METHODS: We conducted an EWAS using Illumina 450k DNA-methylation array profiles of extracted DNA from 663 Ghanaian participants. Differentially methylated positions (DMPs) were examined for association with plasma total cholesterol (TC), LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, and triglycerides concentrations using linear regression models adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, diabetes mellitus, and technical covariates. Findings were replicated in independent cohorts of different ethnicities. FINDINGS: We identified one significantly associated DMP with triglycerides (cg19693031 annotated to TXNIP, regression coefficient beta -0.26, false discovery rate adjusted p-value 0.001), which replicated in-silico in South African Batswana, African American, and European populations. From the top five DMPs with the lowest nominal p-values, two additional DMPs for triglycerides (CPT1A, ABCG1), two DMPs for LDL-cholesterol (EPSTI1, cg13781819), and one for TC (TXNIP) replicated. With the exception of EPSTI1, these loci are involved in lipid transport/metabolism or are known GWAS-associated loci. The top 5 DMPs per lipid trait explained 9.5% in the variance of TC, 8.3% in LDL-cholesterol, 6.1% in HDL-cholesterol, and 11.0% in triglycerides. INTERPRETATION: The top DMPs identified in this study are in loci that play a role in lipid metabolism across populations, including West-Africans. Future studies including larger sample size, longitudinal study design and translational research is needed to increase our understanding on the epigenetic regulation of lipid metabolism among West-African populations. FUNDING: European Commission under the Framework Programme (grant number: 278901).

Associations of psychosocial stress with type 2 diabetes and glycaemic control among Ghanaians: The RODAM study.

BACKGROUND: The extent to which psychosocial stress relates to type 2 diabetes among sub-Saharan Africans is not well understood. We assessed associations of psychosocial stresses with type 2 diabetes status and glycaemic control among Ghanaians. METHODS: We used data from Research on Obesity and Diabetes among African Migrants (RODAM) study. We performed logistic and linear regression models to assess association of psychosocial stresses with type 2 diabetes and HbA1c respectively with adjustments for age, sex, education and other stresses. We also assessed moderation effects of migration status (migrant Ghanaians vs. non-migrant Ghanaians), age, sex and education by adding interaction terms in models. RESULTS: Four thousand eight hundred and forty one Ghanaians were included with 44% resident in Ghana, 62% women, mean age of 46 years and 10% having type 2 diabetes. Psychosocial stress at home and at work were not associated with type 2 diabetes or HbA1c levels. Negative life events in past 12 months were negatively associated with type 2 diabetes (adjusted odds ratio = 0.93, 95% CI 0.87-0.99). Perceived discrimination was positively associated with type 2 diabetes (aOR = 1.01, 95% CI 1.004-1.03). Both associations were more pronounced in men. Perceived discrimination was also positively associated with HbA1c levels, especially among those with type 2 diabetes (adjusted ß = 0.01, 95% CI 0.007-0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Perceived discrimination and negative life events are associated with type 2 diabetes and glycaemic control among Ghanaians, especially in men. Further studies are needed to identify context-specific mechanisms underlying these associations.

Estimating the total incidence of type 1 diabetes in children and adolescents aged 0-19 years from 1990 to 2050: a global simulation-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies of type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence have found large variations in reported incidence around the world. However, it is unclear whether these reported incidence levels are impacted by differences in country health systems and possible underdiagnosis and if so, to what degree. The aim of this study was to estimate both the total and diagnosed incidence of type 1 diabetes globally and to project childhood type 1 diabetes incidence indicators from 1990 to 2050 for each country. METHODS: We developed the type 1 diabetes global microsimulation model to simulate the natural history and diagnosis of type 1 diabetes for children and adolescents (aged 0-19 years) in 200 countries and territories, accounting for variability in underlying incidence and health system performance. The model follows an open population of children and adolescents in monthly intervals and simulates type 1 diabetes incidence and progression, as well as health system factors which influence diagnosis. We calibrated the model to published data on type 1 diabetes incidence, autoantibody profiles, and proportion of cases diagnosed with diabetic ketoacidosis from 1990 to 2020 and assessed the predictive accuracy using a randomly sampled test set of data withheld from calibration. FINDINGS: We estimate that in 2021 there were 355 900 (95% UI 334 200-377 300) total new cases of type 1 diabetes globally among children and adolescents, of which 56% (200 400 cases, 95% UI 180 600-219 500) were diagnosed. Estimated underdiagnosis varies substantially by region, with over 95% of new cases diagnosed in Australia and New Zealand, western and northern Europe, and North America, but less than 35% of new cases diagnosed in west Africa, south and southeastern Asia, and Melanesia. The total number of incident childhood cases of type 1 diabetes is projected to increase to 476 700 (95% UI 449 500-504 300) in 2050. INTERPRETATION: Our research indicates that the total global incidence of childhood and adolescent type 1 diabetes is larger than previously estimated, with nearly one-in-two children currently undiagnosed. Policymakers should plan for adequate diagnostic and medical capacity to improve timely type 1 diabetes detection and treatment, particularly as incidence is projected to increase worldwide, with highest numbers of new cases in Africa. FUNDING: Novo Nordisk.

Patterns of tobacco use in low and middle income countries by tobacco product and sociodemographic characteristics: nationally representative survey data from 82 countries.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence and frequency of using any tobacco product and each of a detailed set of tobacco products, how tobacco use and frequency of use vary across countries, world regions, and World Bank country income groups, and the socioeconomic and demographic gradients of tobacco use and frequency of use within countries. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of nationally representative, cross-sectional, household survey data from 82 low and middle income countries collected between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2020. SETTING: Population based survey data. PARTICIPANTS: 1 231 068 individuals aged 15 years and older. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Self-reported current smoking, current daily smoking, current smokeless tobacco use, current daily smokeless tobacco use, pack years, and current use and use frequencies of each tobacco product. Products were any type of cigarette, manufactured cigarette, hand rolled cigarette, water pipe, cigar, oral snuff, nasal snuff, chewing tobacco, and betel nut (with and without tobacco). RESULTS: The smoking prevalence in the study sample was 16.5% (95% confidence interval 16.1% to 16.9%) and ranged from 1.1% (0.9% to 1.3%) in Ghana to 50.6% (45.2% to 56.1%) in Kiribati. The user prevalence of smokeless tobacco was 7.7% (7.5% to 8.0%) and prevalence was highest in Papua New Guinea (daily user prevalence of 65.4% (63.3% to 67.5%)). Although variation was wide between countries and by tobacco product, for many low and middle income countries, the highest prevalence and cigarette smoking frequency was reported in men, those with lower education, less household wealth, living in rural areas, and higher age. CONCLUSIONS: Both smoked and smokeless tobacco use and frequency of use vary widely across tobacco products in low and middle income countries. This study can inform the design and targeting of efforts to reduce tobacco use in low and middle income countries and serve as a benchmark for monitoring progress towards national and international goals.

The Association of Socioeconomic Status With Hypertension in 76 Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

BACKGROUND: Effective equity-focused health policy for hypertension in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) requires an understanding of the condition's current socioeconomic gradients and how these are likely to change in the future as countries develop economically. OBJECTIVES: This cross-sectional study aimed to determine how hypertension prevalence in LMICs varies by individuals' education and household wealth, and how these socioeconomic gradients in hypertension prevalence are associated with a country's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. METHODS: We pooled nationally representative household survey data from 76 LMICs. We disaggregated hypertension prevalence by education and household wealth quintile, and used regression analyses to adjust for age and sex. RESULTS: We included 1,211,386 participants in the analysis. Pooling across all countries, hypertension prevalence tended to be similar between education groups and household wealth quintiles. The only world region with a clear positive association of hypertension with education or household wealth quintile was Southeast Asia. Countries with a lower GDP per capita had, on average, a more positive association of hypertension with education and household wealth quintile than countries with a higher GDP per capita, especially in rural areas and among men. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in hypertension prevalence between socioeconomic groups were generally small, with even the least educated and least wealthy groups having a substantial hypertension prevalence. Our cross-sectional interaction analyses of GDP per capita with the socioeconomic gradients of hypertension suggest that hypertension may increasingly affect adults in the lowest socioeconomic groups as LMICs develop economically.

Rural-Urban Differences in Diabetes Care and Control in 42 Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Cross-sectional Study of Nationally Representative Individual-Level Data.

OBJECTIVE: Diabetes prevalence is increasing rapidly in rural areas of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), but there are limited data on the performance of health systems in delivering equitable and effective care to rural populations. We therefore assessed rural-urban differences in diabetes care and control in LMICs. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We pooled individual-level data from nationally representative health surveys in 42 countries. We used Poisson regression models to estimate age-adjusted differences in the proportion of individuals with diabetes in rural versus urban areas achieving performance measures for the diagnosis, treatment, and control of diabetes and associated cardiovascular risk factors. We examined differences across the pooled sample, by sex, and by country. RESULTS: The pooled sample from 42 countries included 840,110 individuals (35,404 with diabetes). Compared with urban populations with diabetes, rural populations had ∼15-30% lower relative risk of achieving performance measures for diabetes diagnosis and treatment. Rural populations with diagnosed diabetes had a 14% (95% CI 5-22%) lower relative risk of glycemic control, 6% (95% CI -5 to 16%) lower relative risk of blood pressure control, and 23% (95% CI 2-39%) lower relative risk of cholesterol control. Rural women with diabetes had lower achievement of performance measures relating to control than urban women, whereas among men, differences were small. CONCLUSIONS: Rural populations with diabetes experience substantial inequities in the achievement of diabetes performance measures in LMICs. Programs and policies aiming to strengthen global diabetes care must consider the unique challenges experienced by rural populations.